Not So Tariffic

After a record-breaking sell-off last week, markets continue to digest the impacts of Trump’s universal tariffs, poor consumer sentiment, geopolitical tension, and the Fed’s stance as it battles persistent and pesky inflation (and those are just the headlines!).

In times like these, it’s understandable that investors (maybe even you?) check their portfolios a little more often, refresh news feeds a little more anxiously, and wonder—quietly or aloud—if it’s time to make a change.

This isn’t panic; it’s fatigue.

It’s an uncertainty that wears on confidence and tempts us to act—not because we’ve uncovered something new, but because not acting feels increasingly uncomfortable, and doing something—anything—just feels right.  It isn’t.  The natural, instinctive inclination to act won’t serve you or your portfolio well, and there’s a lot of data proving this.

Behaviorally, this is one of the hardest stretches to navigate. It’s not just that markets are volatile—it’s that the volatility feels justified. The concerns seem real, the risks tangible. And in that context, staying invested can feel less like discipline and more like negligence.

But the question we should be asking isn’t whether the current environment is concerning. Of course it is.  It’s whether concern is a reliable signal for change—and, historically speaking, a good time to sell.  Spoiler alert – the answer is no.

Of course, the markets could (and may) drop another 25% or more.  A recession is increasingly likely (60-70% by most measures) barring central bank intervention or aggressive (and quick) tariff negotiations.

But remember that as markets sell off, expected future returns rise.

That’s the tradeoff baked into long-term investing. Lower prices today set the stage for higher returns tomorrow. It doesn’t make the ride more comfortable, but it does help explain why staying invested through discomfort is often rewarded with stronger outcomes over time.

The periods that feel most uncertain tend to coincide with some of the most important moments for long-term investors—not because they’re obvious turning points, but because they aren’t. Markets typically begin to recover before clarity returns, before sentiment improves, and before the headlines suggest it’s safe to re-enter.

There are serious and even systemic problems facing the US and global economy and this isn’t a call for blind optimism. It’s a recognition that markets often process bad news faster than we do. That the emotional impulse to avoid short-term pain can come at the cost of long-term progress. And that waiting for confidence to return before investing again is usually a lagging strategy.

That said, the right approach depends on your time horizon, your liquidity needs, and your ability to stay the course. Investing through uncertainty isn’t a virtue in isolation—it’s only useful if it aligns with your broader financial reality.

So if you’re feeling uneasy, that’s not a weakness—it’s a sign you’re paying attention. And if you’re wondering whether your plan still makes sense, that’s exactly the kind of conversation worth having.

I understand these times are hard. Stay the course, and reach out if I can be of assistance.